2 CONSTRAINTS, POTENTIALS AND
ASSUMPTIONS

 

2.1 CONSTITUTIONAL AND STRATEGIC FACTORS

 

2. Assumption: Namibia is assured unrestricted access to Walvis Bay (W.B.) either through the exercise of sovereignty or as if it were re-integrated into the national territory (operative at the latest in 1994)(Strategic Context 1). Therefore strategic considerations were taken into account: Joint Administration (Strategic Context 2) and Continued South African Occupation (Strategic Context 3). This situation was solved with the re-integration of Walvis Bay into the Republic of Namibia on 1st March 1994. In reality only Strategic Context 1 is of any relevance as from this date, but the other two strategic contexts were investigated as long the re-integration issue was not resolved (before August 1993) [2].

3. The Study can be described as Constrained Optimisation Study: It identifies a number of general constraints and assumptions, then seeks to optimise economic solutions. The base year for the estimated engineering costs is current (late 1992), for economic quantities and values 1990 or 1991, for national accounts 1985 (Ministry of Finance: latest statistics)).

 

2.2 SCENARIOS

 

4. Three scenarios were investigated in the Study [3]:

- Slow Growth Scenario
- Rapid Growth Scenario
- Expected Growth Scenario.

 

2.3 PRINCIPAL CONSTRAINTS

 

5. Large-scale additional water supplies will be an essential prerequisite to a development of any new port facilities along the Namibian coast.

6. Namibian strategic authority over key assets and institutions, (physical and social infrastructure as well as different organisational managements and authorities), whether formally under Namibian ownership, will be an important basis for any long-term planning and investment.

7. Environmental factors in sensitive ecological zones along Namibian coast.

 

2.4 KEY ASSUMPTIONS

 

8. Commercial fish stocks will make a moderate to full recovery.

9. Onshore fish processing will grow faster than the rise in fish catches, in line with GRN-policy favouring shore processing. Relating processing, manufacturing and service industries will consequently expand.

10. Commissioning of any new major mining projects whether land-based or off-shore, will exceed the time frame of planning a new port facility. In line with international practice of big mining projects (say 0,5 millions tpa or above), any capital costs for bulk transport infrastructure will be part of the mining project and not direct bear on the new port. For secondary economic costs the Government of the Republic of Namibia may contribute.

11. Any new port development will take into consideration GRN- policy of phasing out migrant labour.

12. Namibian exports and imports will make use of Namibian ports and no foreign ports. Lüderitz has limited potential for expansion of port facilities and fish processing only.

 

2.5 SHORT-TERM IMPLICATIONS

 

13. Whilst W.B. remained under South African control, infrastructural decisions were kept at minimum, especially regarding Portnet's long-term harbour planning, plans for a new fishing port and municipal plans for a desalination plant.

14. Under the increasing yield of fishing resources due to the Namibian protection policy, new key components of fishing, notably new shore processing of white fish, cannot be realised without having new fishing port facilities in place.

15. Medium to long term fishing require the construction of a new fishing port facility along the Namibian North Coast, regardless short-term stop gap provisions in Lüderitz or W.B.

16. Lack of water for human consumption and economic activities will become at least as serious a restraint on coastal economic development as supplies to industry has already become an urgent issue at Walvis Bay.

 

2.6 REQUIRED SHORT TERM ACTIONS

 

17. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) will be required for any of the different identified port options:

(a.) a replacement commercial port for W.B. at the North Coast (not any more relevant after re-integration of W.B.);
(b.) a new fishing port at W.B.;
(c.) a new North Coast fishing port and town;
(d.) any expansion at Lüderitz; as well as
(e.) road and rail links to (a.) and (c.).

18. Full project planning and design works in consequence of the taken decision for one of the port options as long as the EIAs raise no insuperable obstacles.

19. A preliminary EIA for any future expansion of the commercial port at Walvis Bay which is of significance as far as the W.B. wetland are concerned.

20. Preliminary town development planning and industrial estate planning in connection with all required activities, adjacent infrastructural planning and designs as well as long-term strategic planning of additional (W.B.) or total bulk water supplies (North Coast Port) at W.B. or any replacement port as per decided option.

Endnotes

[2]  Situation as for early 1993 was analysed in the original Study. In the meantime the Walvis Bay issue has been resolved by the re-integration of the Port City and enclave on 1th March 1994. Thus, only strategic Context 1 has to be considered.

[3] See Footnote 1

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