3 TASK I - SECTORAL DEMANDS: PORT FACILITIES

 

3.1 SECTORAL DEMANDS FOR PORT FACILITIES: FISHING

 

3.1.1 THE FISH RESOURCE, EXPLOITATION AND POLICY

 

3.1.1.1 SENSITIVITY OF ANALYSIS

 

21. In spite of the past overfishing of Namibian fishing resources, and due to the current protection policies after Independence, the long-term recovery to high yields is good. The recovery timing is more predictable and more stable for the longer-lived white fish (demersal) than for the short-lived oily fish (pelagic).

22. The balance between off-shore or shore-based processing is dependent on the development of on-shore infrastructures around any of the potential fishing ports as well as the form in which the fish is landed (frozen or on ice).

 

3.1.1.2 LIVING MARINE RESOURCES

 

23. The six major commercial species (pelagic: pilchard, anchovy and juvenile horse mackerel; demersal: hake and horse mackerel; rock lobster; red crab) are fully exploited. Tuna, squid and snoek are under-exploited. Prospects for increased supply lie more with the recovery of the major fish biomass rather than with discovery of unknown fish stocks.

 

3.1.1.3 PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL ALLOWABLE CATCHES

 

24. Under all scenarios, it is expected that horse mackerel and red crab will sustain their present long-term catch rates (Maximum Sustainable Yields (MSYs)), while hake will fully recover. The expected growth scenario is that the three stocks recover, but MSY is reached only in the last phase of the planning period (years 15-25). It has to be stressed that pilchard might never fully recover, but equally might "explode" at any time to former levels of abundance. The long-term total catch is estimated at 1,4 mt (1991: 0,6 mt TAC, the real annual catch for 1991 was approx. 0,4 mt brutto (wet fish) of which approx. 80% was exported). The projections will be pictured in tables 1 (Estimates of Long-Run Maximum Sustainable Yields For Major Species), 2 and 3.

 

TABLE 1: ESTIMATES OF LONG-RUN MSYs

  

Species Unit Catch 1991 MSY estimates:

Study

Policy

Hake 000t

56

300

300-350

Kingklip 000t

0

7

10-15

Monk 000t

5

8

Sole 000t

0

2

Horse mackerel 000t

438

400

300

Chub mackerel 000t

0

40

40

Pilchard 000t

69

400

300-500

Anchovy 000t

17

100

100-200

Snoek 000t

1

20

20

Other white 000t

1

80

Other pelagic 000t

3

40

Sub-total: fish species 000t

590

1397

Rock lobster t

375

2000

2-3000

Deep water crab t

2500

6000

6000

Shrimp 000t

0

5

Squid 000t

0

15

10

Total catch 000t

593

1425

Guano t

4000

Seals culled 000

17

30

 

 TABLE 2: NOMINAL CATCHES OF NAMIBIAN FISH, 1991 - 2015

  

Catches by species

Unit

 

1991

Slow growth

Rapid growth

Expected growth

Max. TAC

1995

2005

2015

1995

2005

2015

1995

2005

2015

Nominal catches:

Hake

Kingklip

Monk

Sole

Horse mackerel

Chub mackerel

Pilchard

Anchovy

Snoek

Other white fish

Other pelagic

000t

000t

000t

000t

000t

000t

000t

000t

000t

000t

000t

56

0

5

0

438

0

69

17

1

1

3

140

1

5

0

450

10

100

50

3

20

10

250

5

7

1

200

30

150

50

8

50

15

300

7

8

2

200

40

200

50

20

80

20

140

1

5

1

450

10

140

100

5

20

10

300

7

8

2

400

40

400

100

20

60

40

300

7

8

2

400

40

400

100

20

80

40

140

1

5

0

450

10

100

50

3

20

10

250

5

7

1

400

30

150

50

8

50

15

300

7

8

2

400

40

400

100

20

80

40

350

15

15

5

600

50

600

400

40

100

100

Total finfish

000t

590

789

766

927

882

1377

1397

789

966

1397

2275

Rock lobster

Red crab

Shrimp

Squid

Other

t

t

000t

000t

000t

375

2500

0

0

0

200

2500

0

1

1

500

4000

0

5

1

1000

4000

2

15

1

200

2500

1

5

1

1000

6000

5

15

5

2000

6000

5

15

7

200

2500

0

1

1

1000

4000

3

10

3

2000

6000

5

15

5

3000

8000

10

25

14

Total other

Total catch

000t

000t

3

593

5

794

10

776

23

950

10

891

32

1409

35

1432

5

794

21

987

33

1430

60

2335

Seals

Guano

Seaweed

no.

000t

000t

17

3

(2)

30

3

2

0

3

2

0

3

2

30

3

3

30

4

10

30

5

20

30

3

3

30

3

5

30

5

10

75

7

30

 

TABLE 3: NOTES ON THE FISH CATCH PROJECTIONS

  

Species Slow growth Rapid growth Expected growth
Hake Substantially complete by 2005 Fully complete by 2005 Substantially complete by 2005
Kingklip, monk Same as hake Same as hake Same as hake
Sole Slow recovery Complete by 2005 Slow recovery
Horse mackerel Catches decline for lack of markets Catch rate sustained Catch rate sustained
Chub mackerel Partly complete by 2005 Fully complete by 2005 Partly complete by 2005
Pilchard Gradual recovery, only partly complete by 2015 Rapid, full recovery, complete by 2005 Main recovery after 2005, complete by 2015
Anchovy Little overall recovery Rapid, full recovery, complete by 2005 Main recovery after 2005, complete by 2015
Tuna Little expansion Expansion by 2005 Expansion by 2015
Snoek Gradual recovery Rapid recovery Gradual recovery
Squid Same as hake Same as hake Same as hake
Shrimp No fishery New fishery by 2005 New fishery by 2015
Rock lobster Slow recovery, only partly complete by 2015 Steady recovery, complete by 2015 Steady recovery, complete by 2015
Red crab Stabilised at lower TAC Rapid recovery to former catch rate Slow recovery, complete by 2015
Seals Culling stopped by 2005 Culling sustained at recent rate Culling sustained at recent rate
Seabirds/ guano Gradual decline continues Decline reversed by 2005, then gradual increase Decline stabilised by 2005
Seaweed Present harvesting sustained Steady increase throughout period Gradual increase throughout period
Oysters Static New farms established Slow expansion

 

3.1.1.4 DISTANCE FROM COAST

 

25. Demersal and midwater species (hake, horse mackerel, red crab) are concentrated 50-200 km offshore, deep down and fairly evenly spread, while pelagic species (pilchard, anchovies, juvenile horse mackerel) are concentrated 0-50 km inshore, near the surface and in dense shoals.

 

3.1.1.5 DISTRIBUTION ALONG COAST

 

26. The Namibian EEZ and the distribution of biomass can be separated in three zones (see table 4):

- Hake and other white fish: along the whole continental shelf;
- Horse mackerel: northern and central zones, densest in the north;
- Pilchard: central and northern zone (northern much larger and under-exploited).
   Fully recovery depends on central stock which in turn is dependent on
   replenishment from north;
- Anchovy: central zone, extending north and south in exceptional years;
- Rock lobster: southern coastal reef sites;
- Red crab: continental slope, mainly central and southern zones.

 

TABLE 4: GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF FISH SPECIES

 

Species Depth; distance from coast North-south distribution
Hake Demersal; densest along the continental shelf. Fairly continuous. Two slightly different hake stocks, the northern shared with Angola and the southern with South Africa.
Kingklip, monk Demersal; similar to hake. Similar to hake.
Sole Demersal; inshore. Mainly central.
Horse mackerel Throughout the water column, but densest at middle (mid-water) depths. Younger fish closer inshore at shallow depths, mature fish further out and deeper down. North of Walvis Bay, densest in the northern zone.
Chub mackerel Pelagic, mainly shallow; both in- and offshore. Central and northern.
Redeye herring Pelagic, surface-shoaling; inshore. Central and northern.
Pilchard Pelagic, surface-shoaling; inshore, usually within 50 km. Smaller central biomass from Walvis Bay to Terrace Bay; larger biomass in the northern zone. Highly variable shoaling patterns.
Anchovy Pelagic, surface-shoaling; inshore, usually within 50 km. Mostly Walvis Bay to Terrace Bay, sometimes further south and north. Highly variable shoaling pattern.
Tuna Pelagic; mainly offshore. Fast-moving and migratory; concentration around Mt Tripp Seamount in the south.
Snoek Pelagic; in- and offshore. Fast-moving and migratory; mainly central.
Squid Pelagic/mid-water; mainly offshore. Throughout the EEZ.
Shrimp Pelagic; offshore. Uncertain.
Rock lobster Demersal; close inshore, concentrated around rocky reefs. Southern coastal sites from Oyster Cliffs to Orange River.
Red crab Demersal; offshore on continental slope. Mainly central and southern.
Seals Colonies on the offshore islands and at Cape Cross. Central and southern.
Seabirds (guano) Offshore island colonies, artificial platforms at Walvis Bay and Cape Cross. Central and southern.
Seaweed Close inshore. Southern coast.
Oysters Fish farms at Lüderitz and Swakopmund. Central and southern.

 

3.1.1.6 PRESENT FISHING CAPACITY

 

27. Distant-water fishing was ended on 21.03.1990 and fishing vessels must now be locally registered.

28. The fleet comprises:

- 38 purse seiners (pelagic factories);
- 20 small trawlers, mostly old (hake);
- 20 - 25 large freezer trawlers (mostly chartered
        from Spanish owners (hake, kingklip));
- 50-55 very large Russian trawlers with
        mid-water gear (horse mackerel);
- 5 demersal long-liners (tuna, hake) and 15
        hand-liners (various);
- 32 crayfish catchers in integrated fleets;
- 4 large Japanese crab catchers;
- A limited number of small boats.

29. There is excess capacity in purse-seiners, freezer trawler, mid-water trawler and crayfish catcher categories. The situation is pictured in the following five tables (tables 5 to 9):

 

TABLE 5: NAMIBIAN LICENSED FISHING VESSELS, 1989 - 1992

 

Fishery Location Gear Year No. of vessels Total GRT GRT/ vessel
Demersal Offshore Bottom trawl 110 mm 1989

1990

1991

1992*

- F

- W

43

51

47

42

38

4

39,763

44,780

45,390

36,192

35,098

1,094

925

878

966

862

924

274

Demersal Inshore Bottom trawl 75 mm 1989

1990

1991

1992*

15

16

16

15

1,596

1,784

1,784

1,702

106

111

111

113

Demersal Offshore Longline 1989

1990

1991

1992*

5

5

11

7

1,726

1,791

2,845

1,967

345

358

259

281

Horse mackerel Offshore Mid-water trawl 1989

1990

1991

1992*

-

61

78

48

-

158,560

195,584

176,117

-

2,599

2,507

3,669

Tuna Offshore Pole-&-line 1989

1990

1991

1992*

7

7

2

21

518

518

438

2,514

74

74

219

120

Linefish Inshore Handline 1989

1990

1991

1992*

16

16

14

11

947

947

857

727

59

59

61

66

Linefish Inshore Handline (ski-boats) 1989

1990

1991

1992*

3

3

2

2

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

Pelagic Inshore Purse-seine 1989

1990

1991

1992*

39

40

38

38

9,729

10,037

9,074

9,117

249

251

239

240

Rock lobster (factories) Coast Trap 1989

1990

1991

1992*

35

35

31

31

2,383

2,383

2,115

2,080

68

68

68

67

Rock lobster (SPBO) + Coast Trap 1989

1990

1991

1992*

10

10

10

8

111

225

225

113

11

22

22

14

Crab Offshore Trap 1989

1990

1991

1992*

6

8

5

4

2,392

3,239

2,001

1,612

399

405

400

403

Total 1989

1990

1991

1992*

179

251

254

227

59,168

183,957

260,316

232,143

331

733

1,025

1,023

NOTA:

F = freezer trawler W = wetfish trawler

* The figures for 1992 are compiled from the list of licensed vessels and include only those vessels which appeared to have current licences at the time the list was compiled (late 1992). The figures for 1989-1991 may additionally include vessels on licences which were relinquished during the year in question or transferred to other vessels.

+ Small private boat owners, each with a 10 t quota. These boats were not allocated rock lobster quotas for the 1992/93 season.

NB Vessels fishing under the ICSEAF regime up to March 1990 and not locally licensed are excluded.

 

TABLE 6: FISHING VESSELS: SIZE AND SHARE, 1992

 

Category Share of total GRT (%) Smallest (GRT) Largest (GRT) Mean (GRT)
White fish:

freezer trawler

wetfish trawler

inshore trawler

longliner

sub-total

 

15.1

0.5

0.7

0.8

17.2

102

102

67

63

1,785

444

174

749

924

274

113

281

Semi-pelagic:

midwater trawler

75.9

1,435

7,765

3,669

Pelagic:

purse-seiner

tuna longliner

handliner

ski-boat

sub-total

 

3.9

1.1

0.3

0.0

5.3

98

68

35

1

564

225

99

1

240

126

66

1

Crustacean:

rock lobster (F)

rock lobster (SPBO)

crab catchers

sub-total

 

0.9

0.0

0.7

1.6

50

3

384

98

65

443

67

14

403

Total

100

1

7,765

1,023

NOTA: SPBO = Small private boat-owners. F = Factory-owned vessels.

 

TABLE 7: DISTRIBUTION OF FISHING VESSELS: TONNAGES, 1992

 

 

Category

Tonnage in GRT range:
0-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000+
White fish:

freezer trawler

wetfish trawler

inshore trawler

longliner

sub-total

 

-

-

745

162

907

 

1953

1094

955

1054

5056

 

12462

-

-

749

13211

 

20682

-

-

-

20682

-

-

-

-

Semi-pelagic:

midwater trawler

-

-

-

5231

170886

Pelagic:

purse-seiner

tuna longliner

handliner

ski-boat

sub-total

 

693

1115

727

2

2537

 

7301

1401

-

-

8702

 

1126

-

-

-

1126

 

-

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-

-

Crustacean:

rock lobster (F)

rock lobster (SPBO)

crab catchers

sub-total

 

2080

113

-

2193

 

-

-

1612

1612

 

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-

GRT

per cent

5637

2.4

15370

6.6

14337

6.2

25913

11.2

170,886

73.6

 

TABLE 8: DISTRIBUTION OF FISHING VESSELS: NUMBERS, 1992

 

 

Category

No. in GRT range:
0-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000+
White fish:

freezer trawler

wetfish trawler

inshore trawler

longliner

sub-total

 

-

-

9

2

11

 

8

4

6

4

22

 

16

-

-

1

17

 

14

-

-

-

14

 

-

-

-

-

-

Semi-pelagic:

midwater trawler

 

-

 

-

 

-

 

3

 

45

Pelagic:

purse-seiner

tuna longliner

handliner

ski-boat

sub-total

 

7

14

11

2

34

 

29

7

-

-

36

 

2

-

-

-

2

 

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Crustacean:

rock lobster (F)

rock lobster (SPBO)

crab catchers

sub-total

 

31

8

-

39

 

-

-

4

4

 

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-

Total

per cent

84

37.0

62

27.3

19

8.4

17

7.5

45

19.8

 

TABLE 9: ESTIMATES OF VESSEL FISHING CAPACITY, 1992

 

Vessel category No. of vessels Total GRT Main target species Catching capacity (t)
Trawlers (110 mm):

freezer

wetfish

Trawlers (75 mm):

freezer

wetfish

Longliners

Purse-seiners

 

38

4

9

6

7

38

38

 

35,098

1,094

1,193

509

1,967

9,117

9,117

 

Hake

Hake

Hake

Hake

Hake

Pilchard

Industrial

 

150,500

9,000

9,900

1,800

3,200

152,750

578,200

Main target species No. of vessels Catching capacity (t) Projection 1993 (t): Excess (t)
Quota Catch
Hake:

freezer trawlers

wetfish trawlers

longliners

Pilchard*

Industrial*:

horse mackerel

anchovy & other

 

64

47

10

7

38

38

38

174,400

160,400

10,800

3,200

152,750

350,000

91,000

15,000

?

115,000

150,000+

-

 

90,000

10,000

3,000

80,000

185,000

100,000

50,000

 

70,400

-

-

72,750

165,000

NOTA:

* An analysis by MFMR estimates the total catching capacity of the purse-seiner fleet at either 152,750 t of directed pilchard in a 6 month season or 578,200 t of industrial fish (mainly anchovy and horse mackerel) over an 8 month season. The calculations here assume that 80,000 t of the 1993 pilchard quota is caught for canning and the rest for reduction together with 150,000 of other pelagic fish. The actual fishing power of purse-seiners depends heavily on the shoaling patterns of the target species.

                          +       The 1993 TAC less quotas allocated for mid-water trawling (300,000 t out of 450,000 t).

 

3.1.1.7 PRESENT PROCESSING CAPACITY

 

30. Pelagic processing factories: 5 (3 canning/reduction, 2 reduction only), all located behind the fishing port waterfront in W.B. There are no plants in Lüderitz (status: 1993).

31. White fish factories: 4 at W.B., mostly small and limited packing operations, 2 at Lüderitz: 1 small and mothballed, the other large and modern with prepared foods production (status: 1993).

32. Rock lobster processing and packing plants: 2 at Lüderitz (status: 1993).

33. Other factories: one small oyster farm at Swakopmund, one at Lüderitz, two seal processing plants at Cape Cross and Lüderitz, 1 seaweed drying plant at Lüderitz.

34. The pelagic, white fish and rock lobster factories have considerable spare capacities with old machinery and low-value and narrow product ranges.

 

3.1.1.8 GOVERNMENT POLICY AND STRATEGY

 

35. GRN major objective: sustainable utilisation of fisheries resources and the growth of related industries, geared to the national economic objectives and nutrition and national food security.

36. The level of fishing and processing will be restrained until stock recovery has reached MSY. Namibianisation of fleet and processing will be fostered as well as labour-intensive technologies.

 

3.1.2 SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVES

 

3.1.2.1 FUTURE EXPANSION OF THE FLEET

 

37. The fleet of freezer trawlers will not increase and wet-fish trawlers will expand rapidly to dominate the catching of white fish. Trawl-seiners will freeze part of the pilchard catch for processing and direct export. Hand-liners and small boats will expand more rapidly. This will be shown in table 10 for the expected growth scenario:

 

TABLE 10: FISHING FLEET PROJECTION: 1991 - 2015

 

Boat category Catches Vessels

1995

2005

2015

Max.

1992

1995

2005

2015

Max.

Trawlers:

freezer 70m

freezer 55m

freezer 35m

wetfish 35m

wetfish 20m

inshore 35m

inshore 20m

midwater 105m

midwater 80m

sub-total

 

60

54

11

12

25

4

6

-

300

473

 

120

104

15

30

55

5

7

-

250

586

 

125

104

19

64

110

5

8

-

250

685

 

150

124

26

90

170

7

13

-

320

900

 

14

16

8

2

2

6

9

31

17

105

 

14

17

5

5

20

4

8

-

42

115

 

26

28

6

11

39

4

9

-

35

158

 

24

26

6

20

71

4

9

-

35

195

 

26

28

8

26

100

5

15

-

38

246

Seiners:

trawl 55m

purse 45m

purse 35m

purse 25m

sub-total

 

15

95

96

82

288

 

45

110

105

85

345

 

80

200

210

170

660

 

200

425

370

305

1300

 

-

5

11

22

38

 

1

5

7

12

25

 

2

6

8

14

30

 

3

10

15

26

54

 

5

15

18

33

71

Liners:

long 55m

long/pole 35m

hand/pole 20m

sub-total

 

2

10

18

30

 

5

18

22

45

 

13

25

27

65

 

20

30

40

90

 

1

7

31

39

 

1

6

21

27

 

2

9

22

33

 

4

12

25

41

 

5

13

33

52

Ring & bow net:

crayfish 20m

crayfish 20m *

crab 50m

sub-total

0.2

2.5

2.7

1.0

4.0

5.0

2.0

6.0

8.0

3.0

8.0

11.0

 

22

9

4

35

 

4

4

3

11

 

12

5

4

21

 

22

7

5

34

 

27

8

6

41

Small boats 10m

0.2

3.0

7.0

20.0

10

3

33

70

183

Total

793

984

1425

2321

227

177

275

394

592

Nota: * Carriers.

 

3.1.2.2 SHORE PROCESSING

 

38. Pelagic factories: will be modernised or even newly built with diversified higher unit value canning range. Parts of the remaining pilchards frozen for off-season processing or direct export.

39. White fish: majority will be landed on ice for on-shore filleting and processing in diversified, modern production plants with dispatching of high value fish on ice direct by air to foreign markets.

40. Horse mackerel: part of the catch will be dried and salted for domestic and other African markets. Rock lobster and red crab will be on-shore processed after revival of crayfish production.

41. Supporting industries like ice-making and cold storage as well as ancillary industries and services like marine engineering, can making and carton making and other container related industries will expand considerably. This will be pictured in table 11 for the expected growth scenario for the expected growth scenario:

 

TABLE 11: SHORE PROCESSING PROJECTION: 1991 - 2015

 

Product category /

000 t gross weight

1995

2005

2015

Max.

Total shore output:

fresh

fillets, seafood

dried

canned, preserved

meal

oil

TOTAL

 

10

28

39

58

71

12

218

 

16

61

57

97

95

15

341

 

25

113

74

142

186

30

570

 

45

131

96

195

374

61

902

Exports by sea:

fillets, seafood

dried

canned, preserved

meal

oil

TOTAL

 

26

37

56

50

12

180

 

58

54

93

67

15

287

 

107

69

137

149

30

497

 

120

88

185

313

61

767

Landings direct to export:

fillets, h & g

whole frozen

meal

TOTAL

 

47

180

28

255

 

84

102

29

215

 

78

90

30

198

 

94

174

31

299

Total exports by sea:

fillets, seafood

whole frozen

dried

canned, preserved

meal

oil

TOTAL

 

72

180

37

56

79

12

435

 

142

102

54

93

96

15

502

 

186

90

69

137

178

30

691

 

214

174

88

185

344

61

1066

Exports by air:

fresh

 

7

 

10

 

15

 

35

Nota: h & g = headed and gutted.

 

3.1.3 INFRASTRUCTURE FOR VESSELS AND PROCESSING

 

3.1.3.1 FISHING FLEET AND PORT INFRASTRUCTURE

 

42. The new fishing fleet with expanding wet-fish trawlers and line-boats will be larger in numbers if not in capacity than the existing one based on large freezer trawlers.

43. While the W.B. commercial port is grossly underutilised the W.B. fishing port has some serious constraints like restricted tying up quay length and restricted access because all the existing companies control all the frontage leaving independent boat owners dependent on the companies or the commercial port.

44. If the full potential of the fishing industry is to be realised, especially its white fish branches, major additions to the existing specialised facilities will have to be realised at the latest by year 10.

45. The "status-quo-monopoly" of existing companies on waterfront sites at W.B. is a severe constraint to new entrants. New industrial sites are urgently needed, especially for white fish processing factories. A new fishing port with sufficient storage facilities has to be established, as extensions at W.B. and Lüderitz or at a new site or sites at Namibia's North Coast.

 

3.1.4 FISHING GROUNDS AND HARBOUR LOCATIONS

 

3.1.4.1 VESSEL TYPES AND ACCESS TO FISHING GROUNDS

 

46. Large freezer trawlers can reach all fishing grounds from any port location on the Namibian coast. Wet-fish trawlers and purse-seiners fishing pelagic species can fish the southern and central sea areas out of existing harbours but not reach the northern grounds without operating and quality losses.

47. Any expansion in the southern sector for white fish and crustaceans can be covered by Lüderitz. Any expansions in the central sector can be accommodated at W.B. but would disadvantage wet-fish trawlers, hand-liners and purse-seiners fishing the northern grounds.

48. Whether or not a new port will be built in the north, a major expansion in the central area will be required, especially for white fish. The rapid growth in the smaller vessel categories generates early and sizeable demand for new off-loading facilities.

49. For the northern sector a medium-sized fishing port would be justified after year 10 in terms of the potential volume of landings, with the increased pilchard yield after year 5 and the rapidly increasing wet-fish trawlers and line-boats. A northern fishing port would offer potential advantages in reduced operating costs and improved landed fish quality.

50. It is still uncertain in how far the northern sector will be required as breeding ground for pilchards but under all scenarios it was established that a small to medium northern fishing port will be justified by year 10-15, mainly as base for wet-fish trawlers and line-boats. This will be shown in table 12:

 

TABLE 12: CATCH PROJECTIONS FOR 1991 - 2015

 

Product category /

000 t live weight

equivalent

Slow growth

Rapid growth

Expected growth

Max. TAC

1995

2005

2015

1995

2005

2015

1995

2005

2015

Northern:

frozen

whole, gutted

h&g, filleted

on ice

rsw/csw *

dry *

meal

TOTAL

 

197

120

77

1

0

42

60

900

 

134

23

112

5

5

68

0

212

 

162

28

135

7

10

63

0

262

 

197

120

77

2

15

60

60

334

 

307

160

147

17

50

165

0

539

 

305

171

134

50

60

90

0

505

 

196

119

77

2

0

42

60

300

 

214

87

127

10

25

43

60

352

 

234

90

144

26

30

120

60

470

 

313

145

168

34

30

230

60

667

Central:

frozen

whole, gutted

h&g, filleted

on ice

rsw/csw *

dry *

meal

TOTAL

 

147

74

72

12

67

144

40

410

 

147

26

121

27

88

175

0

437

 

184

41

143

37

115

167

0

503

 

135

74

61

25

94

169

40

462

 

202

106

96

81

110

255

0

646

 

176

103

73

121

150

250

0

696

 

137

72

65

19

67

147

40

410

 

154

47

106

39

89

164

40

486

 

144

58

86

97

127

323

40

731

 

230

118

112

121

180

700

40

1271

Southern:

frozen

whole, gutted

h&g, filleted

on ice

rsw/csw *

dry *

meal

TOTAL

 

64

19

45

9

0

5

0

79

 

90

7

83

18

0

10

0

117

 

112

11

101

25

10

16

0

162

 

50

19

31

24

5

7

0

86

 

98

21

78

43

10

40

0

191

 

77

19

59

70

20

30

0

197

 

60

19

42

14

0

5

0

79

 

93

16

78

25

0

10

0

128

 

109

17

93

37

10

40

0

197

 

129

22

108

48

20

140

0

337

Whole EEZ:

frozen

whole, gutted

h&g, filleted

on ice

rsw/csw *

dry *

meal

TOTAL

 

408

213

195

23

67

191

100

789

 

371

56

315

50

93

252

0

766

 

458

78

379

70

135

265

0

927

 

381

214

168

51

114

236

100

882

 

607

287

321

140

170

460

0

1377

 

557

292

265

240

230

370

0

1397

 

394

210

184

34

67

134

100

789

 

461

150

311

75

114

216

100

966

 

487

165

322

160

167

483

100

1397

 

673

285

398

202

230

1070

100

2275

NOTA: * rsw/csw = for canning; dry = for reduction.

 

3.2 SECTORAL DEMANDS: PORT FACILITIES: LAND MINING

 

3.2.1 MINING DEVELOPMENT AND MINERAL EXPORTS

 

3.2.1.1 MINING POTENTIAL AND EXPORT QUANTITIES

 

51. Namibia's mineral endowment is more significant in terms of diversity than quantity. Furthermore, the great bulk of Namibia's mineral production is for export. During the development and operation phases for mines considerable demand for port facilities exists.

52. All metal deposits are small by world standards, many parts of the country remain under-exploited while the potential for discovery of a large commercial metallic deposit is regarded as low, new exploration might yield results.

53. The degree of processing will have an influence on the export outputs but will add value on the other hand to these metals and accelerates Namibia's economic development. Smelted or refined metals also have a reduced need for specialised handling equipment.

 

3.2.1.2 DEVELOPMENT OF MINERAL PROSPECTS

 

54. Only non-speculative mining potentialities for which at least a feasibility or better some initial mine development has taken place can be considered for the calculation of transport demand.

55. Particular configuration and port locations which are mostly project-dedicated and commodity-specific, which could be the spin-off for other economic developments, and adjacent transport infrastructure can only be predicted with any precision if the planning of such mining project is well advanced. It can be expected that medium- and small-scale mining development in Namibia will make use of existing infrastructure and will only add specialised equipment to existing facilities.

 56. For all potential new projects, the lead time to plan, design, construct and commission a new mine would in most cases exceed the time needed to expand existing port facilities or build new facilities.

 

3.2.2 CURRENT MINING ACTIVITIES

 

57. Most of the minerals produced in significant quantities are exported. Mineral imports comprise mainly sulphuric acid (to Rössing Uranium Limited (RUL)), lead concentrates (to the Tsumeb smelter) and coal (to the smelter and the thermal power station in Windhoek).

58. The 3 Gold Fields Namibia (GFN) mines (Tsumeb, Kombat, Otjihase) produce most of the copper and lead, nearly all which is processed at the Tsumeb smelter which also smelts from foreign mines like from the North-Western Cape. The total output of metal and mineral concentrates decreased to 350.000 to 400.000 tpa. The production of industrial minerals comprises mainly of salt (± 550.000 tpa) and fluorspar, granite and marble (± 50.000 tpa).

59. The Output/Input Volumes and Transport Routes are the following:

- Rössing Uranium: uranium oxide in drums: 2.000 tpa (capacity: 4.500 tpa);
   pyrites from Otjihase: 100-150.000 tpa;
   sulphuric acid imported: 30.000 tpa (100.000 tpa in 1987);
   also manganese.

- Base Metal Concentrates: from Kombat/Otjihase to Tsumeb: 70-80.000 tpa;
   lead from Rosh Pinah: 25.000 tpa;
   zinc from Rosh Pinah: 55.000 tpa;
   lead and copper from N.W. Cape: 40.000 tpa.


- Smelted and refined metals: blister copper and refined lead: from Tsumeb: 40.000 tpa;
   refined copper from Zambia: 5.000 tpa.

- Industrial minerals: salt from north of Swakopmund: 400.000 tpa bulk, 75.000 tpa bagged;
   fluorspar from Okorusu: 30.000 tpa;
   marble and granite from Karibib: 20.000 tpa;
   coal and coke from South Africa: up to 60.000 tpa to Windhoek Power Station and 100.000 tpa to
   Tsumeb.

60. Table 13 summarises the approximate current flows of mineral products through Walvis Bay Port:

 

TABLE 13: THROUGHPUT OF MINERALS: WALVIS BAY

 

Products (000 t) Exports Imports
Ore *

520

5

Concentrates

25

25

Refined metals

80

-

Liquid

-

30

NOTA: * Including salt.

 

3.2.3 BASE METALS WITHIN NAMIBIA

 

61. Several exploration companies have secured areas which, in their opinion, hold the best mining potential. The major companies exploring for bulk tonnage commodities in Namibia are Rio Tinto Zinc (RTZ), Erongo Mining and Exploration Company Ltd. (EMEC) and Gold Fields Namibia Ltd. A summary of their activities follows:

- RTZ: Kaokoland: Sedimentary hosted lead, copper and zinc;
                               Volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits in western and northern Kaokoland;
                               Sediment hosted metal sulphides in central and eastern areas.
                               Otjiwarongo: Feasibility study (Rössing Uranium) for graphite deposits (small
                               quantities).

- EMEC:                 Base and precious metals: carbonate hosted and sandstone hosted deposits:
                               Owambo, Kaokoland, Damaraland.
                               Omitiomire: copper mineralisation.

- GFN:                     Matchless Amphibolite Belt; Ongombo deposit; southern interior around Rosh Pinah:
                               copper: feasibility stages.
                               Tsumeb will close 1995/96;
                               Kombat will continue some more years;
                               Tschudi sandstone hosted copper deposit can replace Tsumeb.

62. Other exploration companies are Rand Mines (Joint Venture: Tsongoari Exploration: Kaokoland: base metal deposits). Anglovaal: Damara southern zone: base metal exploration south of Windhoek. ISCOR: limited base metal exploration at Rosh Pinah and Swakopmund.

63. Smelting and Refining: Tsumeb smelter (GFN): is old and may not continue to the end of time horizon of the Port Study without major upgrading or replacement.

64. Kaokoland and Haib: No major deposits are currently known in Kaokoland in spite of the excellent geological exposure (Ombarundu: copper-lead carbonate/sandstone; Okalikwa Hill epigenetic vein replacement copper (silver) deposit; Tsongoari lead/zinc sediment hosted project; iron deposits with relatively low tonnage and grade). The projected tonnages of the Haib porphyric copper deposit to be worked and the expected metal recoveries from a planned leach operation are all unrealistic in view of grades, location and mineralogy of the deposit.

65. Currently, there are no major mineral deposits under development which would have an impact on exports within 10 years. Projections beyond this point are totally speculative, even for a time horizon to 25 years. It is probable that bulk export commodities will maintain the present level of movement for the next 15 years and it is rated as optimistic to expect an increase after this period.

 

3.2.4 BASE METALS OUTSIDE NAMIBIA

 

66. The Namibian "West Coast Corridor" will, with the completion of the Trans-Caprivi and the Trans-Kalahari highways, initiate new export routes for base metal products from Zambia and Zaire, although it is doubtful whether it will ever be viable to transport large scale bulk export by road. Other existing transport corridors through south and east African ports have serious economic, time and reliability as well as effectivity disadvantages against the Namibian West Coast Corridor. The re-opening of the Benguela Corridor is at best a long-term proposition. Recent large-scale exploration by the Anglo-American corporation in an area south of Lake Ngami in Botswana has revealed large, low to moderate grade copper deposits which could be exported via the Trans-Kalahari-Highway. 

67. A Trans-Caprivi-Railway line to Grootfontein will only be economically viable unless base metal prices show sustainable higher price levels or the world market demand will sharply rise or new non-mineral freight volumes will develop.

 

3.2.5 COAL

 

68. The development of the known coal deposits in Namibia in the Aranos and Otjozondjupa areas as well as in the East Caprivi are unlikely to be developed during the time horizon of this study. 

69. With the current coal prices it is also improbable whether it would be viable to finance a Trans-Caprivi or Trans-Kalahari railway line for Zimbabwe (Hangwe) or Botswana coal deposits. If long distance of rail track relaying via existing South-Africa railway lines would be necessary, it could become viable to establish a new rail route to the Namibian west coast ports.

 

3.2.6 INDUSTRIAL MINERALS AND DIMENSION STONE

 

70. Namibia is a major salt producer with currently 550.000 tpa from south of Walvis Bay and north of Swakopmund. Additional salt deposits in the Cape Cross area could develop an additional 500.000 tpa, mainly to West Africa. This deposit would require a loading and mooring facility near or at Cape Cross. In addition to exports, or as a partial alternative to them, upgrading the salt by chemical processing might become viable given the abundance of the supply.

71. The dimension stone mining industry in Namibia is growing rapidly. The potential exists for the development and the production in Namibia of large tonnages of unpredictable commodities which may have an effect on the export facilities. A recent example is the interest shown in producing up to 3 millions tpa of cement for the Pacific Rim markets.

 

3.2.7 DEMAND EXPECTATIONS FOR EXPECTED GROWTH

 

72. Brief comments follow on the principle components of the "Expected Growth Scenario". "Export potential" refers to cargo dispatched by sea and omits traffic crossing the land borders. Estimates are given for long term yields, i.e. after 15 years, although these levels may be achieved earlier in individual cases.

73.   Tsumeb copper smelter: copper 60.000 tpa; lead 100.000 tpa;
        Otjihase: 100.000 tpm @ 2% copper recovered: 24.000 tpa;
        Tschudi deposit: 60.000 tpm @ 2% copper recovered: 14.400 tpa;
        Rosh Pinah: lead: 25.000 tpa conc. or 13.000 tpa refined: zinc: 65-75.000 tpa conc;
        EMEC or RTZ prospects could result in a small to micro mine: 30.000 tpm @ 12% lead equiv.:
        43.000 tpa;
        One other small mine is developed: maybe Tsongoari: 20.000 tpm @ 12% lead equiv.: 29.000 tpa:
        and/or 20.000 tpm @ 3% copper equiv.: 7.200 tpa;
        Salt increases slowly to about 50% above present: 0,7 millions tpa;
        Granite/marble expand steadily: 30.000 tpa each;
        Graphite will be viable: 30.000 tpa;
        Uranium dioxide recovers partly, extending the life of Rössing mine. At the end of the period a new
        mine at Langer Heinrich,
        Trekkopje or Valencia may be developed: 4.000 tpa;
        Import of sulphuric acid remain supplemental to pyrites from Otjihase: 10.000-20.000 tpa import;
        Whether or not the Botswana/Zimbabwe coal fields are developed, a west coast terminal and rail link
        does not prove viable at this point of time. But, this has to be verified by further analysis.

74. The major component of mineral exports under the slow and expected growth scenarios is bulk salt. Only under the rapid growth scenario are base minerals anticipated to generate large volumes. Although highly speculative, a large-tonnage (10 millions tpa) export railway with a bulk loading terminal on the Namibian West Coast is projected after year 15 under the rapid growth scenario.

75. Table 14 summarises the mining traffic flows through Namibia's West Coast Harbour for the expected growth scenario with the totals for slow and rapid scenarios as comparison. No special North Coast Port is required for these scenarios.

 

TABLE 14: THROUGHPUT OF MINING PRODUCTS

 

 

Scenario

1995

2005

2015

exp.

imp.

total

exp.

imp.

total

exp.

imp.

total

Slow growth:

Namibia

transit

total

 

495

5

500

 

40

-

40

 

535

5

540

 

390

10

400

 

60

-

60

 

450

10

460

 

390

10

400

 

60

-

60

 

450

10

460

Rapid growth:

Namibia

transit

total

 

640

10

650

 

70

-

70

 

710

10

720

 

1300

20

1320

 

130

-

130

 

1430

20

1450

 

2050

10000

12050

 

150

-

150

 

2200

10000

12200

Expected growth:

Namibia

transit

total

 

610

5

615

 

40

-

40

 

650

5

655

 

850

10

860

 

50

-

50

 

900

10

910

 

1060

20

1080

 

50

-

50

 

1110

20

1130

 

3.3 SECTORAL DEMAND: PORT FACILITIES: OFFSHORE MINING

 

3.3.1 PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS

 

3.3.1.1 THE EXPLORATION PHASE

 

76. Exploration timing is critical and it would be unrealistic to assume any major finds before 3-5 years and another 8 years before normal production can start (10 years altogether at minimum). 4 Licenses with more to come have so far been awarded, for blocks located in the far north of the Namibian EEZ, some of them furthermore at great distance from the coast. The latest is adjacent to the Kudu gas field in the south. It can be inferred that a port in the north would be to the advantage of the companies engaged in the exploration phase.

77. The demands during the exploration phase are quite modest as long as only onboard seismic exploration is being undertaken. A few facilities at W.B., including some onshore storage areas, should be sufficient. The demands will start to change rapidly if exploration enters into the next phase, when floating platform drilling rigs begin with their operations (as from 1994).

78. While the logistical support for the southern, central and north-central sectors can be supplied from Lüderitz and W.B., the support for operations in the far north would suffice the building of a new dedicated port somewhere along the Namibian North Coast to service the floaters during the lifetime of the exploration phase. The potential savings in sea distance to a northern port are considerable. Once such a new port is economically justified by the needs of the oil exploration industry, then other activities may be "hooked" to it.

79. The demand scenario in table 15 is drawn from the practical experience in Norway of having five floaters services operating from the same port:

80. It is unlikely that a cost-benefit analysis would support the construction of a new North Coast Port for use only during the small number of years of the exploration phase. Such a port is more feasible after the next stage of oil/gas appraisal and development or other port developing scenarios.

 

TABLE 15: PORT DEMAND SCENARIO: OIL EXPLORATIONS

 

Wharf space 2 quays required, one at 125 m and the other at 75 m, including one ro-ro ramp; depth alongside 10.5 m; capable of handling ships of up to 36,000 GRT
Physical area at port 82,000 m2, including 8,000 m2 of indoor storage space
Onshore tank farm 8,000 m2
Outgoing cargo * 185,000 tpa
Incoming cargo * 110,000 tpa
Ship movements 800 per year
Crane usage Heavy use of 30 t and 70 t cranes; less use of other cranes, ranging from 25 t to 160 t
Timescale Exploration phase = 5 years, starting in 1992
Appraisal & development 7 years, starting from the first good find

NOTA: *  "Outgoing" cargo includes sea-borne; "incoming" cargo plus overland supplies.

 

3.3.1.2 OIL DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION

 

81. The mining and refining of petroleum are independent issues and depend on the nature of the crude oil and the ability of the adjacent off-shore infrastructure (refinery) to handle it. If development of the Kudu field proves viable, the gas would be brought ashore by pipeline and would require both onshore storage and a terminal for loading tankers. If not all the gas is exported, it can be used for energy-intensive industrial processes. 

82. Within the time framework of the Study, speculation regarding the results and development potentials for a Namibian petroleum industry are tentative at this stage. The expected growth scenario is that the Kudu field is not exploited. Tentatively, high condensate hydrocarbons will be discovered in relatively small amounts. In this case production figures of oil would probably be two to four wells of about 5.000 bpd, resulting in a total production not exceeding 20.000 bpd.

 

3.4 DEMANDS ON PORT THROUGHPUT AND PORT SERVICES

 

83. The projections for economic growth and the main sectoral components will be shown in tables 16 (Growth in GDP for Constant (1985) Prices: 1980 - 1991), 17 and 18:

 

TABLE 16: GROWTH IN GDP: 1980 - 1991

 

Sector

Value added ® mn)

Growth (%)

1980

1991

Annual

Total

Agriculture:

commercial

subsistence

295.2

265.3

29.6

278.6

237.8

40.8

-0.5

-1.0

3.0

-6

-10

38

Fisheries:

fishing

fish processing *

45.9

27.2

18.7

229.3

175.9

53.4

15.7

18.5

10.0

400

547

186

Mining:

diamonds

other

1215.4

566.5

648.9

870.4

430.8

439.6

-3.0

-2.5

-3.5

-28

-24

-32

Manufacturing

106.8

133.9

2.1

25

Electricity & water

40.3

60.5

3.8

50

Construction

94.0

54.2

-4.9

-42

Trade. catering,

accommodation

287.3

323.4

1.1

13

Transport & communication

137.5

176.9

2.3

29

Finance, insurance, real

estate, business services

168.6

193.4

1.3

15

Community, social &

personal services

32.9

51.9

4.2

58

General government

275.2

561.0

6.7

104

Other producers

67.5

86.7

2.3

28

Total

excluding fisheries

2766.3

2739.1

3020.2

2844.3

0.8

0.3

9

4

Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic Review 1992

 

TABLE 17: ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS

 

 

(1985 prices)

1990

Slow growth

Rapid growth

Expected growth

1995

2005

2015

1995

2005

2015

1995

2005

2015

GDP ® mn)

2920

3005

3145

3525

3500

5020

6650

3255

4100

5215

Annual (%):

periods

overall

0.6

0.5

1.1

0.8

3.7

3.7

2.9

3.3

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.3

Index

100

103

108

121

120

172

228

112

140

179

NOTES: - Fisheries: the pilchard recovery is only partial and the factories remain unmodernised, keeping the sub-sector to its traditional markets and low returns; white fish expansion is concentrated in freezer trawlers with little onshore processing and few interlinkages; the midwater trawl fishery for horse mackerel proves unprofitable; the rock lobster stock fails to recover fully.
- Mining: diamond operations move offshore at lower output and most of the shore workforce is laid off; uranium continues at half capacity; the Tsumeb smelter proves unviable and closes, together with at least one existing base metal mine; no new mines of any size are brought into production.

 

TABLE 18: SUMMARY OF MAIN SECTORAL COMPONENTS

 

Sector Slow growth Rapid growth Expected growth
Agriculture Static, high & rising grain imports Strong growth in communal areas (cattle, maize), karakul, sugar, horticulture Moderate growth in communal areas, sugar, horticulture
Mining Diamonds & base metals decline, uranium static Marine replace onshore diamonds, uranium recovers strongly, new base metal mines Marine partly replace onshore diamonds, RUL recovers, limited base metal expansion
Fishing Only partial pilchard recovery, other stocks reach MSY All stocks reach MSY All stocks reach MSY, pilchard after 2005
Fish processing Pelagic plants not modernised, white fish sea frozen Pelagic diversification, white fish factories, rock lobster restored Partial pelagic modernisation, mixed sea/onshore white fish processing
Manufacturing Expands 3% pa Expands 7% pa Expands 5% pa
Construction Slow rise, few capital projects Strong early rise in line with new investment Moderate, continuing rise
Tourism Moderate expansion Rapid expansion Steady expansion
Transport Freight static, slow passenger growth Rapid increase, especially late in period Steady increase
Government Decline, then flat Static, then moderate growth Slow growth, accelerating later

NOTES: - Fisheries: the pilchard recovery is only partial and the factories remain unmodernised, keeping the sub-sector to its traditional markets and low returns; white fish expansion is concentrated in freezer trawlers with little onshore processing and few interlinkages; the midwater trawl fishery for horse mackerel proves unprofitable; the rock lobster stock fails to recover fully.
- Mining: diamond operations move offshore at lower output and most of the shore workforce is laid off; uranium continues at half capacity; the Tsumeb smelter proves unviable and closes, together with at least one existing base metal mine; no new mines of any size are brought into production.

 

3.4.1 CARGO IMPORT DEMAND

 

84. Table 19 (expected growth scenario) deals with the following nine groups of commodities (expected growth scenario): Liquid fuel; ore, minerals and metals; coal; machinery, vehicles and equipment; construction materials; chemicals and primary products; agricultural and livestock products; food and beverages and others [4].

 

TABLE 19: CARGO IMPORT DEMAND: PORT THROUGHPUT

  

Year Volume (000 tpa) Growth per period (%)
Liquid fuel Other Total Annual Total
1990

1995

2005

2015

600

690

940

1250

250

280

330

450

850

970

1270

1700

2.7

2.7

3.0

14

31

34

 

3.4.2 CARGO EXPORT DEMAND

 

85. Table 20 deals with the following five groups of commodities (expected growth scenario): Salt; ore, minerals and metals; dimension stone (granite, marble etc.); cement; live animals; meat and others.

 

TABLE 20: CARGO IMPORT DEMAND: PORT THROUGHPUT

 

Year Volume (000 tpa) Growth per period (%)
Salt Other Total Annual Total
1990

1995

2005

2015

500

500

700

800

185

270

470

520

685

770

1170

1320

2.4

4.3

1.2

12

52

13

 

3.4.3 FISHING INDUSTRY DEMAND

 

86. Tables 21, 22 and 23 are giving the demand analysis for the fishing sector for landed fish, transhipped fish and fish product exports. All figures are in 000 tpa net weight. 

 

TABLE 21: FISH LANDED

 

Year

Expected growth

Slow growth

Rapid growth

1990

1995

2005

2015

215

395

550

960

215

380

530

650

215

500

965

1020

 

TABLE 22: SEA-FROZEN FISH TRANSHIPPED

 

Year

Expected growth

Slow growth

Rapid growth

1990

1995

2005

2015

280

230

190

195

280

240

200

240

280

230

230

150

 

TABLE 23: EXPORTS OF FISH PRODUCTS

 

Year

Expected growth

Slow growth

Rapid growth

1990

1995

2005

2015

60

160

240

395

60

150

215

325

60

200

405

420

 

3.4.4 SERVICES TO THE OFF-SHORE INDUSTRY

 

87. It is assumed by the year 2000 a total of 5 floating exploration vessels will be in operation in the central and northern concession areas. These 5 vessels will be served by 3 supply vessels, each of about 36.000 GRT and having a draught of 10,5 m. Table 24 gives the total cargo in and cargo out for these vessels:

 

TABLE 24: TOTAL THROUGHPUTS: OFF-SHORE INDUSTRY

 

Year

Cargo in

(000 tpa)

Cargo out

(000 tpa)

1990

1995

2005

2015

-

30

150

200

-

50

200

250

 

3.4.5 TRANSIT TRAFFIC FROM/TO NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES

 

88. Table 25 gives under the expected growth scenario the total transit traffic through Namibian port facilities:

 

TABLE 25: TRANSIT TRAFFIC TO NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES

 

Year Volume (000 tpa) Growth per period (%)
Annual Total
1990

1995

2005

2015

55

75

125

175

6.4

5.2

3.4

43

64

39

 

3.4.6 SUMMARY OF TOTAL IMPORT/EXPORT PROJECTIONS

 

89. Table 26 gives the total import/export throughputs:

 

TABLE 26: SUMMARY OF TOTAL THROUGHPUTS

 

 

000 t

1995

2005

2015

exp.

imp.

total

exp.

imp.

total

exp.

imp.

total

Slow:

bulk

other

total

 

550

140

690

 

800

130

930

 

1350

270

1620

 

350

155

505

 

900

210

1110

 

1250

365

1615

 

325

155

480

 

1050

270

1320

 

1375

425

1800

Rapid:

bulk

other

total

 

625

275

900

 

830

200

1030

 

1455

475

1930

 

1700

765

2465

 

1225

260

1485

 

2925

1025

3950

 

4100

1370

5470

 

1750

335

2085

 

5850

1705

7555

Expected:

bulk

other

total

 

525

245

770

 

800

170

970

 

1325

415

1740

 

800

370

1170

 

1090

180

1270

 

1890

550

2440

 

900

420

1320

 

1450

245

1695

 

2350

665

3015

Endnotes

[4]  "South African Transport", December 1992, p.8: reported that - as a rough guesstimate - 30 vessels (and consequently 750 trains) are required to move one million tons of cargo

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