| 3 TASK I - SECTORAL DEMANDS: PORT
FACILITIES
3.1 SECTORAL DEMANDS FOR PORT FACILITIES: FISHING
3.1.1 THE FISH RESOURCE, EXPLOITATION AND POLICY
3.1.1.1 SENSITIVITY OF ANALYSIS
21. In spite of the past overfishing of Namibian fishing resources, and due to the current protection policies after Independence, the long-term recovery to high yields is good. The recovery timing is more predictable and more stable for the longer-lived white fish (demersal) than for the short-lived oily fish (pelagic). 22. The balance between off-shore or shore-based processing is dependent on the development of on-shore infrastructures around any of the potential fishing ports as well as the form in which the fish is landed (frozen or on ice).
3.1.1.2 LIVING MARINE RESOURCES
23. The six major commercial species (pelagic: pilchard, anchovy and juvenile horse mackerel; demersal: hake and horse mackerel; rock lobster; red crab) are fully exploited. Tuna, squid and snoek are under-exploited. Prospects for increased supply lie more with the recovery of the major fish biomass rather than with discovery of unknown fish stocks.
3.1.1.3 PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL ALLOWABLE CATCHES
24. Under all scenarios, it is expected that horse mackerel and red crab will sustain their present long-term catch rates (Maximum Sustainable Yields (MSYs)), while hake will fully recover. The expected growth scenario is that the three stocks recover, but MSY is reached only in the last phase of the planning period (years 15-25). It has to be stressed that pilchard might never fully recover, but equally might "explode" at any time to former levels of abundance. The long-term total catch is estimated at 1,4 mt (1991: 0,6 mt TAC, the real annual catch for 1991 was approx. 0,4 mt brutto (wet fish) of which approx. 80% was exported). The projections will be pictured in tables 1 (Estimates of Long-Run Maximum Sustainable Yields For Major Species), 2 and 3.
TABLE 1: ESTIMATES OF LONG-RUN MSYs
TABLE 2: NOMINAL CATCHES OF NAMIBIAN FISH, 1991 - 2015
TABLE 3: NOTES ON THE FISH CATCH PROJECTIONS
25. Demersal and midwater species (hake, horse mackerel, red crab) are concentrated 50-200 km offshore, deep down and fairly evenly spread, while pelagic species (pilchard, anchovies, juvenile horse mackerel) are concentrated 0-50 km inshore, near the surface and in dense shoals.
3.1.1.5 DISTRIBUTION ALONG COAST
26. The Namibian EEZ and the distribution of biomass can be separated in three zones (see table 4):
TABLE 4: GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF FISH SPECIES
3.1.1.6 PRESENT FISHING CAPACITY
27. Distant-water fishing was ended on 21.03.1990 and fishing vessels must now be locally registered.
29. There is excess capacity in purse-seiners, freezer trawler, mid-water trawler and crayfish catcher categories. The situation is pictured in the following five tables (tables 5 to 9):
TABLE 5: NAMIBIAN LICENSED FISHING VESSELS, 1989 - 1992
NOTA: F = freezer trawler W = wetfish trawler * The figures for 1992 are compiled from the list of licensed vessels and include only those vessels which appeared to have current licences at the time the list was compiled (late 1992). The figures for 1989-1991 may additionally include vessels on licences which were relinquished during the year in question or transferred to other vessels. + Small private boat owners, each with a 10 t quota. These boats were not allocated rock lobster quotas for the 1992/93 season. NB Vessels fishing under the ICSEAF regime up to March 1990 and not locally licensed are excluded.
TABLE 6: FISHING VESSELS: SIZE AND SHARE, 1992
NOTA: SPBO = Small private boat-owners. F = Factory-owned vessels.
TABLE 7: DISTRIBUTION OF FISHING VESSELS: TONNAGES, 1992
TABLE 8: DISTRIBUTION OF FISHING VESSELS: NUMBERS, 1992
TABLE 9: ESTIMATES OF VESSEL FISHING CAPACITY, 1992
NOTA:
+ The 1993 TAC less quotas allocated for mid-water trawling (300,000 t out of 450,000 t).
3.1.1.7 PRESENT PROCESSING CAPACITY 30. Pelagic processing factories: 5 (3 canning/reduction, 2 reduction only), all located behind the fishing port waterfront in W.B. There are no plants in Lüderitz (status: 1993). 31. White fish factories: 4 at W.B., mostly small and limited packing operations, 2 at Lüderitz: 1 small and mothballed, the other large and modern with prepared foods production (status: 1993). 32. Rock lobster processing and packing plants: 2 at Lüderitz (status: 1993). 33. Other factories: one small oyster farm at Swakopmund, one at Lüderitz, two seal processing plants at Cape Cross and Lüderitz, 1 seaweed drying plant at Lüderitz. 34. The pelagic, white fish and rock lobster factories have considerable spare capacities with old machinery and low-value and narrow product ranges.
3.1.1.8 GOVERNMENT POLICY AND STRATEGY
35. GRN major objective: sustainable utilisation of fisheries resources and the growth of related industries, geared to the national economic objectives and nutrition and national food security. 36. The level of fishing and processing will be restrained until stock recovery has reached MSY. Namibianisation of fleet and processing will be fostered as well as labour-intensive technologies.
3.1.2 SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVES
3.1.2.1 FUTURE EXPANSION OF THE FLEET
37. The fleet of freezer trawlers will not increase and wet-fish trawlers will expand rapidly to dominate the catching of white fish. Trawl-seiners will freeze part of the pilchard catch for processing and direct export. Hand-liners and small boats will expand more rapidly. This will be shown in table 10 for the expected growth scenario:
TABLE 10: FISHING FLEET PROJECTION: 1991 - 2015
Nota: * Carriers.
3.1.2.2 SHORE PROCESSING
38. Pelagic factories: will be modernised or even newly built with diversified higher unit value canning range. Parts of the remaining pilchards frozen for off-season processing or direct export. 39. White fish: majority will be landed on ice for on-shore filleting and processing in diversified, modern production plants with dispatching of high value fish on ice direct by air to foreign markets. 40. Horse mackerel: part of the catch will be dried and salted for domestic and other African markets. Rock lobster and red crab will be on-shore processed after revival of crayfish production. 41. Supporting industries like ice-making and cold storage as well as ancillary industries and services like marine engineering, can making and carton making and other container related industries will expand considerably. This will be pictured in table 11 for the expected growth scenario for the expected growth scenario:
TABLE 11: SHORE PROCESSING PROJECTION: 1991 - 2015
Nota: h & g = headed and gutted.
3.1.3 INFRASTRUCTURE FOR VESSELS AND PROCESSING
3.1.3.1 FISHING FLEET AND PORT INFRASTRUCTURE
42. The new fishing fleet with expanding wet-fish trawlers and line-boats will be larger in numbers if not in capacity than the existing one based on large freezer trawlers. 43. While the W.B. commercial port is grossly underutilised the W.B. fishing port has some serious constraints like restricted tying up quay length and restricted access because all the existing companies control all the frontage leaving independent boat owners dependent on the companies or the commercial port. 44. If the full potential of the fishing industry is to be realised, especially its white fish branches, major additions to the existing specialised facilities will have to be realised at the latest by year 10. 45. The "status-quo-monopoly" of existing companies on waterfront sites at W.B. is a severe constraint to new entrants. New industrial sites are urgently needed, especially for white fish processing factories. A new fishing port with sufficient storage facilities has to be established, as extensions at W.B. and Lüderitz or at a new site or sites at Namibia's North Coast.
3.1.4 FISHING GROUNDS AND HARBOUR LOCATIONS
3.1.4.1 VESSEL TYPES AND ACCESS TO FISHING GROUNDS 46. Large freezer trawlers can reach all fishing grounds from any port location on the Namibian coast. Wet-fish trawlers and purse-seiners fishing pelagic species can fish the southern and central sea areas out of existing harbours but not reach the northern grounds without operating and quality losses. 47. Any expansion in the southern sector for white fish and crustaceans can be covered by Lüderitz. Any expansions in the central sector can be accommodated at W.B. but would disadvantage wet-fish trawlers, hand-liners and purse-seiners fishing the northern grounds. 48. Whether or not a new port will be built in the north, a major expansion in the central area will be required, especially for white fish. The rapid growth in the smaller vessel categories generates early and sizeable demand for new off-loading facilities. 49. For the northern sector a medium-sized fishing port would be justified after year 10 in terms of the potential volume of landings, with the increased pilchard yield after year 5 and the rapidly increasing wet-fish trawlers and line-boats. A northern fishing port would offer potential advantages in reduced operating costs and improved landed fish quality. 50. It is still uncertain in how far the northern sector will be required as breeding ground for pilchards but under all scenarios it was established that a small to medium northern fishing port will be justified by year 10-15, mainly as base for wet-fish trawlers and line-boats. This will be shown in table 12:
TABLE 12: CATCH PROJECTIONS FOR 1991 - 2015
NOTA: * rsw/csw = for canning; dry = for reduction.
3.2 SECTORAL DEMANDS: PORT FACILITIES: LAND MINING
3.2.1 MINING DEVELOPMENT AND MINERAL EXPORTS
3.2.1.1 MINING POTENTIAL AND EXPORT QUANTITIES
51. Namibia's mineral endowment is more significant in terms of diversity than quantity. Furthermore, the great bulk of Namibia's mineral production is for export. During the development and operation phases for mines considerable demand for port facilities exists. 52. All metal deposits are small by world standards, many parts of the country remain under-exploited while the potential for discovery of a large commercial metallic deposit is regarded as low, new exploration might yield results. 53. The degree of processing will have an influence on the export outputs but will add value on the other hand to these metals and accelerates Namibia's economic development. Smelted or refined metals also have a reduced need for specialised handling equipment.
3.2.1.2 DEVELOPMENT OF MINERAL PROSPECTS
54. Only non-speculative mining potentialities for which at least a feasibility or better some initial mine development has taken place can be considered for the calculation of transport demand. 55. Particular configuration and port locations which are mostly project-dedicated and commodity-specific, which could be the spin-off for other economic developments, and adjacent transport infrastructure can only be predicted with any precision if the planning of such mining project is well advanced. It can be expected that medium- and small-scale mining development in Namibia will make use of existing infrastructure and will only add specialised equipment to existing facilities. 56. For all potential new projects, the lead time to plan, design, construct and commission a new mine would in most cases exceed the time needed to expand existing port facilities or build new facilities.
3.2.2 CURRENT MINING ACTIVITIES
57. Most of the minerals produced in significant quantities are exported. Mineral imports comprise mainly sulphuric acid (to Rössing Uranium Limited (RUL)), lead concentrates (to the Tsumeb smelter) and coal (to the smelter and the thermal power station in Windhoek). 58. The 3 Gold Fields Namibia (GFN) mines (Tsumeb, Kombat, Otjihase) produce most of the copper and lead, nearly all which is processed at the Tsumeb smelter which also smelts from foreign mines like from the North-Western Cape. The total output of metal and mineral concentrates decreased to 350.000 to 400.000 tpa. The production of industrial minerals comprises mainly of salt (± 550.000 tpa) and fluorspar, granite and marble (± 50.000 tpa). 59. The Output/Input Volumes and Transport Routes are the following: - Rössing Uranium: uranium oxide in drums: 2.000 tpa (capacity: 4.500 tpa); - Base Metal Concentrates: from Kombat/Otjihase to Tsumeb: 70-80.000 tpa;
- Industrial minerals: salt from north of Swakopmund: 400.000 tpa bulk, 75.000 tpa
bagged; 60. Table 13 summarises the approximate current flows of mineral products through Walvis Bay Port:
TABLE 13: THROUGHPUT OF MINERALS: WALVIS BAY
3.2.3 BASE METALS WITHIN NAMIBIA
61. Several exploration companies have secured areas which, in their opinion, hold the best mining potential. The major companies exploring for bulk tonnage commodities in Namibia are Rio Tinto Zinc (RTZ), Erongo Mining and Exploration Company Ltd. (EMEC) and Gold Fields Namibia Ltd. A summary of their activities follows: - RTZ: Kaokoland: Sedimentary hosted lead, copper and zinc; - EMEC:
Base and precious metals: carbonate hosted and sandstone hosted deposits: - GFN:
Matchless Amphibolite Belt; Ongombo deposit; southern interior around
Rosh Pinah: 62. Other exploration companies are Rand Mines (Joint Venture: Tsongoari Exploration: Kaokoland: base metal deposits). Anglovaal: Damara southern zone: base metal exploration south of Windhoek. ISCOR: limited base metal exploration at Rosh Pinah and Swakopmund. 63. Smelting and Refining: Tsumeb smelter (GFN): is old and may not continue to the end of time horizon of the Port Study without major upgrading or replacement. 64. Kaokoland and Haib: No major deposits are currently known in Kaokoland in spite of the excellent geological exposure (Ombarundu: copper-lead carbonate/sandstone; Okalikwa Hill epigenetic vein replacement copper (silver) deposit; Tsongoari lead/zinc sediment hosted project; iron deposits with relatively low tonnage and grade). The projected tonnages of the Haib porphyric copper deposit to be worked and the expected metal recoveries from a planned leach operation are all unrealistic in view of grades, location and mineralogy of the deposit. 65. Currently, there are no major mineral deposits under development which would have an impact on exports within 10 years. Projections beyond this point are totally speculative, even for a time horizon to 25 years. It is probable that bulk export commodities will maintain the present level of movement for the next 15 years and it is rated as optimistic to expect an increase after this period.
3.2.4 BASE METALS OUTSIDE NAMIBIA
66. The Namibian "West Coast Corridor" will, with the completion of the Trans-Caprivi and the Trans-Kalahari highways, initiate new export routes for base metal products from Zambia and Zaire, although it is doubtful whether it will ever be viable to transport large scale bulk export by road. Other existing transport corridors through south and east African ports have serious economic, time and reliability as well as effectivity disadvantages against the Namibian West Coast Corridor. The re-opening of the Benguela Corridor is at best a long-term proposition. Recent large-scale exploration by the Anglo-American corporation in an area south of Lake Ngami in Botswana has revealed large, low to moderate grade copper deposits which could be exported via the Trans-Kalahari-Highway. 67. A Trans-Caprivi-Railway line to Grootfontein will only be economically viable unless base metal prices show sustainable higher price levels or the world market demand will sharply rise or new non-mineral freight volumes will develop.
3.2.5 COAL
68. The development of the known coal deposits in Namibia in the Aranos and Otjozondjupa areas as well as in the East Caprivi are unlikely to be developed during the time horizon of this study. 69. With the current coal prices it is also improbable whether it would be viable to finance a Trans-Caprivi or Trans-Kalahari railway line for Zimbabwe (Hangwe) or Botswana coal deposits. If long distance of rail track relaying via existing South-Africa railway lines would be necessary, it could become viable to establish a new rail route to the Namibian west coast ports.
3.2.6 INDUSTRIAL MINERALS AND DIMENSION STONE
70. Namibia is a major salt producer with currently 550.000 tpa from south of Walvis Bay and north of Swakopmund. Additional salt deposits in the Cape Cross area could develop an additional 500.000 tpa, mainly to West Africa. This deposit would require a loading and mooring facility near or at Cape Cross. In addition to exports, or as a partial alternative to them, upgrading the salt by chemical processing might become viable given the abundance of the supply. 71. The dimension stone mining industry in Namibia is growing rapidly. The potential exists for the development and the production in Namibia of large tonnages of unpredictable commodities which may have an effect on the export facilities. A recent example is the interest shown in producing up to 3 millions tpa of cement for the Pacific Rim markets.
3.2.7 DEMAND EXPECTATIONS FOR EXPECTED GROWTH
72. Brief comments follow on the principle components of the "Expected Growth Scenario". "Export potential" refers to cargo dispatched by sea and omits traffic crossing the land borders. Estimates are given for long term yields, i.e. after 15 years, although these levels may be achieved earlier in individual cases. 73. Tsumeb copper smelter: copper 60.000 tpa; lead 100.000 tpa; 74. The major component of mineral exports under the slow and expected growth scenarios is bulk salt. Only under the rapid growth scenario are base minerals anticipated to generate large volumes. Although highly speculative, a large-tonnage (10 millions tpa) export railway with a bulk loading terminal on the Namibian West Coast is projected after year 15 under the rapid growth scenario. 75. Table 14 summarises the mining traffic flows through Namibia's West Coast Harbour for the expected growth scenario with the totals for slow and rapid scenarios as comparison. No special North Coast Port is required for these scenarios.
TABLE 14: THROUGHPUT OF MINING PRODUCTS
3.3 SECTORAL DEMAND: PORT FACILITIES: OFFSHORE MINING
3.3.1 PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS
3.3.1.1 THE EXPLORATION PHASE 76. Exploration timing is critical and it would be unrealistic to assume any major finds before 3-5 years and another 8 years before normal production can start (10 years altogether at minimum). 4 Licenses with more to come have so far been awarded, for blocks located in the far north of the Namibian EEZ, some of them furthermore at great distance from the coast. The latest is adjacent to the Kudu gas field in the south. It can be inferred that a port in the north would be to the advantage of the companies engaged in the exploration phase. 77. The demands during the exploration phase are quite modest as long as only onboard seismic exploration is being undertaken. A few facilities at W.B., including some onshore storage areas, should be sufficient. The demands will start to change rapidly if exploration enters into the next phase, when floating platform drilling rigs begin with their operations (as from 1994). 78. While the logistical support for the southern, central and north-central sectors can be supplied from Lüderitz and W.B., the support for operations in the far north would suffice the building of a new dedicated port somewhere along the Namibian North Coast to service the floaters during the lifetime of the exploration phase. The potential savings in sea distance to a northern port are considerable. Once such a new port is economically justified by the needs of the oil exploration industry, then other activities may be "hooked" to it. 79. The demand scenario in table 15 is drawn from the practical experience in Norway of having five floaters services operating from the same port: 80. It is unlikely that a cost-benefit analysis would support the construction of a new North Coast Port for use only during the small number of years of the exploration phase. Such a port is more feasible after the next stage of oil/gas appraisal and development or other port developing scenarios.
TABLE 15: PORT DEMAND SCENARIO: OIL EXPLORATIONS
NOTA: * "Outgoing" cargo includes sea-borne; "incoming" cargo plus overland supplies.
3.3.1.2 OIL DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION
81. The mining and refining of petroleum are independent issues and depend on the nature of the crude oil and the ability of the adjacent off-shore infrastructure (refinery) to handle it. If development of the Kudu field proves viable, the gas would be brought ashore by pipeline and would require both onshore storage and a terminal for loading tankers. If not all the gas is exported, it can be used for energy-intensive industrial processes. 82. Within the time framework of the Study, speculation regarding the results and development potentials for a Namibian petroleum industry are tentative at this stage. The expected growth scenario is that the Kudu field is not exploited. Tentatively, high condensate hydrocarbons will be discovered in relatively small amounts. In this case production figures of oil would probably be two to four wells of about 5.000 bpd, resulting in a total production not exceeding 20.000 bpd.
3.4 DEMANDS ON PORT THROUGHPUT AND PORT SERVICES
83. The projections for economic growth and the main sectoral components will be shown in tables 16 (Growth in GDP for Constant (1985) Prices: 1980 - 1991), 17 and 18:
TABLE 16: GROWTH IN GDP: 1980 - 1991
Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic Review 1992
TABLE 17: ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS
NOTES: - Fisheries: the pilchard recovery is only
partial and the factories remain unmodernised, keeping the sub-sector to its traditional
markets and low returns; white fish expansion is concentrated in freezer trawlers with
little onshore processing and few interlinkages; the midwater trawl fishery for horse
mackerel proves unprofitable; the rock lobster stock fails to recover fully.
TABLE 18: SUMMARY OF MAIN SECTORAL COMPONENTS
NOTES: - Fisheries: the pilchard recovery is only
partial and the factories remain unmodernised, keeping the sub-sector to its traditional
markets and low returns; white fish expansion is concentrated in freezer trawlers with
little onshore processing and few interlinkages; the midwater trawl fishery for horse
mackerel proves unprofitable; the rock lobster stock fails to recover fully.
3.4.1 CARGO IMPORT DEMAND
84. Table 19 (expected growth scenario) deals with the following nine groups of commodities (expected growth scenario): Liquid fuel; ore, minerals and metals; coal; machinery, vehicles and equipment; construction materials; chemicals and primary products; agricultural and livestock products; food and beverages and others [4].
TABLE 19: CARGO IMPORT DEMAND: PORT THROUGHPUT
3.4.2 CARGO EXPORT DEMAND
85. Table 20 deals with the following five groups of commodities (expected growth scenario): Salt; ore, minerals and metals; dimension stone (granite, marble etc.); cement; live animals; meat and others.
TABLE 20: CARGO IMPORT DEMAND: PORT THROUGHPUT
3.4.3 FISHING INDUSTRY DEMAND
86. Tables 21, 22 and 23 are giving the demand analysis for the fishing sector for landed fish, transhipped fish and fish product exports. All figures are in 000 tpa net weight.
TABLE 21: FISH LANDED
TABLE 22: SEA-FROZEN FISH TRANSHIPPED
TABLE 23: EXPORTS OF FISH PRODUCTS
3.4.4 SERVICES TO THE OFF-SHORE INDUSTRY
87. It is assumed by the year 2000 a total of 5 floating exploration vessels will be in operation in the central and northern concession areas. These 5 vessels will be served by 3 supply vessels, each of about 36.000 GRT and having a draught of 10,5 m. Table 24 gives the total cargo in and cargo out for these vessels:
TABLE 24: TOTAL THROUGHPUTS: OFF-SHORE INDUSTRY
3.4.5 TRANSIT TRAFFIC FROM/TO NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES
88. Table 25 gives under the expected growth scenario the total transit traffic through Namibian port facilities:
TABLE 25: TRANSIT TRAFFIC TO NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES
3.4.6 SUMMARY OF TOTAL IMPORT/EXPORT PROJECTIONS
89. Table 26 gives the total import/export throughputs:
TABLE 26: SUMMARY OF TOTAL THROUGHPUTS
Endnotes [4] "South African Transport", December 1992, p.8: reported that - as a rough guesstimate - 30 vessels (and consequently 750 trains) are required to move one million tons of cargo |
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